Voter approval plunges for Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach: poll

CALGARY - As Premier Ed Stelmach navigates a critical week in the run-up to his party leadership review, a new poll suggests popular support for the long-ruling Conservatives has deteriorated dramatically since the premier took the party's helm nearly three years ago.

The results of the public opinion survey, conducted via telephone between Oct. 2 and 7 by Calgary consulting firm Return on Insight, comes as the premier prepares for a prime-time TV address today to explain how "Alberta is responding to the recession and the government's plan for moving forward."

The poll indicates 30 per cent of all respondents said they'd back the Tories if an election was held today, compared with 54 per cent shortly after Stelmach won the PC leadership race in December 2006.

Nearly six in 10 people surveyed disapprove of Stelmach's performance and a nearly identical number said their opinion of the Conservative party has worsened in the past year.

"The results are incredibly negative for Ed Stelmach and the PC party," pollster Bruce Cameron, who heads Return on Insight, said Monday. "Despite their great dominance in the legislature, right now they're losing the confidence of the people of Alberta."

Paul Stanway, Stelmach's director of communications, questioned the timing and accuracy of the latest poll results, suggesting support for the Conservative government is stronger.

He added the latest opinion polls--a survey by Lethbridge College released last week also showed support for the Tories slipping--will not change how the premier governs.

Other political observers, however, contend Stelmach's grip on his party's leadership and on power could be in jeopardy if he doesn't adequately address Albertans' growing angst with his government's handling of the economy, its forecasted multibillion-dollar deficits, and controversial health-care changes in today's 18-minute televised speech.

The address -- to be aired on CTV at 6:40 p. m. and 7 p. m. on Access--occurs less than a month before the premier faces a mandatory party leadership review Nov. 7. Former premier Ralph Klein, who stepped down as PC leader after facing a similar review in 2006, has said Stelmach needs to earn 70 per cent support to call the vote a success.

"There is a lot riding on this speech and it comes down to credibility, to showing that he's on top of the issue, he's not playing catch-up," said University of Calgary political analyst David Taras.

The resurgence of the right-wing Wildrose Alliance has added a new wrinkle to Tory fortunes.

According to the Return on Insight poll, the fledgling party --formed through a merger of two smaller political groups in January 2008--is second to the Tories in popular support, garnering 22 per cent of all respondents despite having only one MLA.

This week marks not only a telling stretch for the Conservatives, but for the Wildrose Alliance as well.

On Saturday, the Wildrose Alliance will choose a new leader--either Calgary chiropractor Mark Dyrholm or Calgarian Danielle Smith.

While Cameron, who worked on former Tory MLA Lyle Oberg's leadership campaign, suggests the Wildrose Alliance's momentum could catapult the party to the forefront, Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt believes support for the upstart organization is soft and could unravel depending on the outcome of its leadership race and how the Tories react to growing dissent.

A sign of the Wildrose Alliance's burgeoning strength was apparent at the legislature Tuesday, as the party's interim leader Paul Hinman was sworn in as a member of the legislature representing Calgary-Glenmore.

The affluent southwest riding had been a Tory stronghold for four decades until Hinman trounced the Conservatives in last month's byelection.

When asked whether he thought the party's sudden popularity was a "flash in the pan," Hinman responded: "Every flash can either start a fire or it can go out," adding the party's connection with Albertans will be tested over time.

Other opposition parties also face a test. The latest poll suggests popular support for the Liberals is at 18 per cent and nine per cent for the NDP.

Liberal Leader David Swann suggested the survey's results are more troubling for the Conservatives.

"This is a very serious indication of loss of confidence and I think loss of public trust (in Stelmach)," Swann said.

Yet, he conceded his party needs to do a better job of persuading Albertans the Grits share their values on "management of our future" and "prudent, hard-working government."

The Return on Insight survey of 802 Albertans has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Cameron said his firm's poll wasn't commissioned by an organization or political organization, adding he's not a member of a provincial party.

rdaliesio@theherald.canwest.com