Fall TV remarkably unpredictable

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. — A new TV season looms. And as the TV networks and cable channels prepare to sell a familiar message — a lot of the old, together with a bit of the new — a cloud of uncertainty has fallen over the semi-annual gathering of the TV Critics Association.

Call it a case of economic cause and neglect. Call it a ripple effect from the mixed messages left by Comic Con, the pop-culture fan convention that just wrapped up in San Diego. Call it what you will, but one thing is certain: No one can predict what will happen during what promises to be one of the more unpredictable fall TV seasons in recent memory.

The new shows themselves may collectively appear to be a bit staid and ordinary — a "new" Law & Order, a new Hawaii Five-0, a new Nikita, etc. — but hope and hype spring eternal this time of year. Every network privately hopes they've found the new Lost, though the early evidence suggests that fan-friendly sci-fi newcomers such as The Event — the buzz show at Comic Con — and No Ordinary Family will turn out to be more in the vein of V and FlashForward than Lost, or even Heroes, in its early, good years.

The success of The Good Wife — arguably the most adult, intellectually stimulating new network drama to emerge since House — has other networks and studio heads scrambling for ways to clone its success, whether it's a courtroom drama starring Jimmy Smits as a retired Supreme Court judge (Outlaw) or a seriocomic legal drama starring wacky duo Jim Belushi and Jerry O'Connell as Las Vegas defence attorneys (The Defenders).

Words you will not see used to describe the fall TV season: fearless, imaginative, uncompromising, bold, innovative.

Even so, the numbers suggest that, in a slow-to-recover economy, people are still staying home and watching TV. That, in turn, has encouraged a conservative, play-it-safe approach from the major studios and networks that still might produce a long-running, fondly appreciated hit. Hardly anyone expected The Big Bang Theory — two socially awkward physics nerds live next door to a young, attractive, single aspiring actress — to become the pop-cultural phenomenon and touchstone it is today. When Big Bang stars Jim Parsons, Kaley Cuoco and Johnny Galecki appeared at Comic Con this past weekend, some in attendance greeted it like the second coming of The Beatles.

(For the record, the much-reported incident, in which a fan stabbed another fan in the eye with a pen, was due to a dispute over a seat before Marvel's movie presentation, featuring footage from Thor and Captain America and an introduction to the full cast of The Avengers — and nothing to do with The Big Bang Theory or anything on TV.)

The two-week, semi-annual gathering of the TV Critics Association that officially starts Wednesday will answer several minor questions, mostly to do with casting and scheduling announcements, while leaving the big question unanswered: What, if anything, will be the next hit? And what will that hit mean for mainstream, conventional television in future?

The event's purpose, from the networks' point of view, will be to crank up the excitement for their new shows and make them stand out in the clutter.

The purpose, from the viewers' point of view, is to: get a head start on what's to come; find out what the buzz shows are; learn what changes are in store for their favourite shows — CSI: Miami is moving to a new night, Parks and Recreation is gone until midseason, Olivia Wilde will be missing from House for a few weeks this fall, as the actress is filming the sci-fi western Cowboys & Aliens, etc. — and learn how different the new Hawaii Five-0 is likely to be from the 1968 Jack Lord/James MacArthur version. Short answer: very.

The TV Critics Association gathering lasts through Aug. 7. The fall season will officially be underway the third week September, following an early Emmy Awards ceremony Aug. 29.